All the experts who “guessed the last x elections elections correctly” are just the ones that got lucky so we think they have a method

But like, I once guessed the right color at roulette 11 times in a row

Doesn’t mean that if I sit down at a roulette table in the future that I have any more than a 49% chance of guessing correctly

I know this isn’t news to some people but also like the DNC spent like $200 mil of their warchest on these people and it just feels like a big grift

Yah, in the past few years the predictions also got way worse in germany.

Looks like for one people are lying more in pools, and also they always underestimate the number of people voting for the populistic parties.

poll results are also skewed toward....the type of people who actually respond to polls

which is less and less a representative sample of people who actually vote